Police and Firefighters are Great, Prop 200, not so much

Don't get me wrong, I think police and firefighters are great. They do dangerous work that benefits society by making their municipalities safe and secure. So, in Tucson on the November 2009 ballot the Proposal 200: Public Safety First Initiative which requires the city to increase the number of police in the city from the current level of 1.9 police officers per 1,000 residents to 2.4 per 1,000 and requiring fire department response times recommended by the National Fire Protection Association seems like a great idea.

But, if you look at the language in the initiative there are no provisions for funding of this requirement. According to the website that is promoting this initiative it will cost the city 16.7 million dollars for hiring more police officers and 30.4 million dollars for hiring more firefighters and the needed capital expenses. So, according to the pro-initiative group it will cost approximately 47.1 million dollars and the city estimate closer to 100 million dollars. Either way that is a great deal of money for a cash strapped city to bare and there is no designated funding sources. Like with any new expense you have two ways to pay for it: raise taxes and take money from somewhere else. Which means that property and sales taxes will go up. Increasing property taxes does not help an already hurting property market in Tucson and increasing sales taxes hurt consumer spending and disproportionally affect lower income people. The alternative method to pay for it to cut spending which will hurt school and community programs which will make Tucson less desirable to move to and, again, disproportionally affecting the poor.

The cost estimates are conservative in my mind because there will be indirect additional costs like funding additional support staff and jails. When one gets right down to it, what is it that police do? Popes wear pointy hats, scorpions sting, and police arrest people. With the increase of people that are arrested, there will be an increase the jail population. Anecdotally, I have heard if there are too many more people in the Tucson jails there will be a need build a new jail, which cost the city and county money. Now, that may be extreme but at the very least there will be a need for more jail guard and administrative staff for the police and jails to process the new arrests. I have not seen any reliable estimates, but intuitively city and county costs will go up with more people in jail.

So, while I like the idea of more police and firefighters, I cannot support this proposal because it is fiscally irresponsible and a burden on our city. My budget philosophy is like pre-paid sell phones, “Pay as you go.” While the pro-proposition groups are well funded by the Realtors, home builders, the police and firefighters unions, there is some grassroots and business opposition to this proposition called "Don't Handcuff Tucson" and here is their groups fiscal statement for Aug. 20, 2009. Hopefully, the Realtors and home builders that funded this initiative will write a better one next year if this one fails to pass.